Posted by
Ryan Hawkins on Wednesday, February 06, 2008 3:48:12 PM
On Super Tuesday the Huckabee Supporters came out in droves and voted for McCain via Mike Huckabee. That surprised many of us. How about West Virginia? Caucus participants in WV noticed after the first round that Romney was at 41% and climbing...so the McCain supporters during the second round decided to throw their support behind Huckabee (as evident in the ending numbers: Huck - 52%, Mitt - 47%, and McCain - 1%) in a strategic move to help McCain by giving Huckabee a win in West Virginia that would have gone to Romney.
What can I say to that? I've got to hand it to the WV McCain caucus-goers for using Huckabee as a pawn in their strategy. Yes, it was a cheap shot at Romney, and perhaps it gave Huck some momentum in a few later states without making him a serious threat to McCain...but unfortunately this is what happens in politics...You'd better believe November is going to be full of dirty little tricks like that.
Mike Huckabee (despite his better than expected performance last night) still has no chance of winning...and even though Romney widened his lead over Huckabee last night, Mitt needed a much better Feb 5 performance to contend with McCain. Right now results still show that McCain is barely over halfway to the 1,191 delegates he needs to secure the nomination...although numbers from Feb 5 aren't final yet. McCain (as of right now) still needs 511 more delegates.
CNN shows the total delegate count now as follows:
McCain: 680
Romney: 270
Huckabee: 176
Expect those numbers to shift some more over the next day or two since unpledged delegates will still get factored in at some point.
Despite the statement from James Dobson on February 5 (which was a little late in my opinion) it appears McCain will ultimately get the nomination and probably lose in November due to his lack of support and enthusiasm from the GOP base. I say that because there seems to be quite a conservative movement that feels the GOP will be better poised to make a return toward conservatism by electing a Democrat in November than it would by electing McCain. Obviously that movement includes James Dobson and Ann Coulter. The level of resistance toward a McCain nomination/presidency seems to be unprecented.
Although I can relate to this conservative movement, my opinion is that much more conservative ground will be lost to the left if Hillary or Barack get elected...I could be wrong.
My March 4 vote (in Texas) is still going to be for Romney (and I am still as ticked off as ever at McCain for the many times he has thumbed his nose at conservatives) but at least I can take some comfort in McCain's flip-flop, pandering pledge to make the Bush tax cuts permanent. I don't believe him, but at least his empty promise is a better alternative than what Barack & Hillary want. I'm not optimistic about McCain's chances in November (especially since McCain's measley fund-raising is dwarfed by the well-funded democrats...and even more especially if McCain runs against a young, very charismatic Barack Obama) but I will still pull the lever for McCain if I have to.
I'm still very surprised the Huck supporters came out in such droves last night and cast their votes for McCain via Mike Huckabee. I thought is was pretty obvious that Huck couldn't possibly win. What wasn't obvious last night is much more obvious now because even after Huck's glorious Feb 5 performance that blew away the expectations of all - Huck is still as unlikely to win the nod as he ever was...he still needs over 100% of the remaining delegates to win the nod. Now it increasingly looks like Romney is almost as much of a long-shot as Huck. Nonetheless, all three have vowed to stay in the race.
McCain currently looks like he is 511 delegates away from securing the nod - which would imply he needs to take over 50% of the remaining 1,008 delegates to secure the nod. If the remaining 1,008 delegates continue to split 3 ways over the next several weeks, McCain may still not reach 1,191 delegates.
There's no point for anyone to drop out, because a brokered convention (at this point) might be good for the party. The GOP can force McCain (through the political horse trading) to take some more conservative positions in his candidacy to bring him more in favor with the base.