Posted by
Ryan Hawkins on Tuesday, February 05, 2008 1:10:59 AM
McCain:
1. Opposes federal marriage amendment; Romney/Huck favor it.
2. McCain-Kennedy
3. McCain-Feingold
4. McCain-Kennedy-Edwards
5. McCain-Lieberman (including a new $0.50/gallon gas tax to fight global warming????)
6. Opposes Guantanamo Bay...let's bring terrorists here and give them constitutional rights
7. Philosophy of bigger government & higher taxes
This is far from conservative. That's why conservatives don't like McCain.
Let's face it...Huck isn't seriously competing in even 1/4 of the states right now..and even those are all close races - AL, GA, MO, OK, & TN. In just the winner-take-all states alone, McCain will likely have over 300 more delegates on 2/5. McCain & Romney will split CA's 173 delegates. McCain doesn't have a single state where he polls under 20%, so he will likely have a very strong day on 2/5 and end the day anywhere between 500 & 800 total delegates.
Huckabee's absolute best-case scenario will be to bring his 29-delegate total to somewhere around 250 (realistically he probably hits 183.) This means Huck's only shot at the nomination will be to win 100% of the votes in all post-February-5 states. Probability = 0. There is no way Huckabee can win.
Romney polls well in most of the 2/5 states, and will likely win MT, CO, MA, ND, CA, UT, and possibly more. Two of those are winner-take-all states. Romney's worst-case 2/5 scenario puts him at about 320 total delegates, but for him to hit 400-500 total delegates on 2/5 is certainly not unreasonable by any means. If neither Huckabee nor Romney break 400 total delegates on 2/5, it is highly unlikely either of them can win (because each must then win over 791 [nearly 80%] of the remaining 1008 delegates to secure the nomination.)
Huckabee Supporters: Choose carefully. If you like McCain, there is no harm in voting for Huck...but since most of you are true conservatives, you probably despise McCain almost as much as you despise Clinton or Obama. If the latter applies, you need to think this through carefully, seriously examine Mitt Romney's stand on the issues , and see for yourself how conservative Mitt really is. It will be easy to pull the lever for Mitt once you do that.