Posted by
Ryan Hawkins on Monday, February 04, 2008 1:23:10 PM
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Most Recent 2008 Polls |
Delegate Split |
| 2/5 State |
Delegates |
Winner Take All |
McCain |
Romney |
Huckabee |
McCain |
Romney |
Huckabee |
| Alabama |
48 |
|
40 |
21 |
31 |
21 |
11 |
16 |
| Alaska |
29 |
|
45 |
35 |
20 |
13 |
10 |
6 |
| Arizona |
53 |
Winner Take All |
43 |
34 |
9 |
53 |
|
|
| Arkansas |
34 |
|
20 |
35 |
45 |
7 |
12 |
15 |
| California |
173 |
|
32 |
40 |
12 |
66 |
82 |
25 |
| Colorado |
46 |
|
45 |
35 |
20 |
21 |
16 |
9 |
| Connecticut |
30 |
Winner Take All |
53 |
31 |
6 |
30 |
|
|
| Delaware |
18 |
Winner Take All |
45 |
35 |
20 |
18 |
|
|
| Georgia |
72 |
|
31 |
29 |
26 |
26 |
24 |
22 |
| Illinois |
70 |
|
43 |
20 |
15 |
39 |
18 |
13 |
| Massachusetts |
43 |
|
34 |
57 |
3 |
16 |
26 |
1 |
| Minnesota |
41 |
|
45 |
35 |
20 |
18 |
14 |
8 |
| Missouri |
58 |
Winner Take All |
35 |
24 |
27 |
58 |
|
|
| Montana |
25 |
Winner Take All |
45 |
35 |
20 |
|
25 |
|
| New Jersey |
52 |
Winner Take All |
45 |
35 |
20 |
52 |
|
|
| New York |
101 |
Winner Take All |
53 |
19 |
8 |
101 |
|
|
| North Dakota |
26 |
|
45 |
35 |
20 |
12 |
9 |
5 |
| Oklahoma |
41 |
|
45 |
35 |
20 |
18 |
14 |
8 |
| Tennessee |
55 |
|
32 |
22 |
30 |
21 |
14 |
20 |
| Utah |
36 |
Winner Take All |
45 |
35 |
20 |
|
36 |
|
| West Virginia |
30 |
|
45 |
35 |
20 |
14 |
11 |
6 |
| Total |
1081 |
|
|
|
|
604 |
322 |
154 |
| Delegates Already Won |
|
|
|
|
97 |
92 |
29 |
| Total Delegates after 2/5 |
|
|
|
|
701 |
414 |
183 |
*In states where recent poll data was not available, I assumed McCain gets 45%, Romney 35%, and Huckabee 20%...that should be a little conservative from Romney's perspective.
**Under this scenario, 2/5 effectively eliminates Huckabee from the race whether he drops out or not since he will now require all remaining 1,008 delegates in order to reach the magic number of 1,191 needed to secure the nomination. Huckabee is clearly not in this for the win...I wish his supporters could see it this way.
***Noteworthy is that 369 of McCain's delegates (129% of his lead over Romney) are from winner-take-all states...which just doesn't seem right.
The table below shows what Romney must do for victory if the likely scenario above plays out on 2/5. Essentially - Romney must win the three remaining winner-take-all states AND he must beat McCain by an average margin of 63.38% to 36.62% in the other states. That is how Romney can reach the magic number of 1,191 delegates. This isn't pretty, but (given the opposition to McCain in the GOP) this isn't out of reach for Romney. Huckabee's chances are...well, let's just say much, much smaller than Romney's chances. Huckabee is certainly not in the race to win...which will be even more obvious if he does not drop out on February 6.
Romney's post-2/5 path to Victory - This isn't pretty, but it isn't out-of reach
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Polls |
Delegate Split |
| |
Post 2/5 States |
|
|
McCain |
Romney |
McCain |
Romney |
| 9-Feb |
Louisiana |
47 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
17 |
37 |
| 9-Feb |
Washington |
40 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
15 |
32 |
| 9-Feb |
Kansas |
39 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
14 |
32 |
| 12-Feb |
Virginia |
63 |
Winner Take All |
36.62 |
63.38 |
|
63 |
| 12-Feb |
Maryland |
37 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
14 |
30 |
| 12-Feb |
District of Columbia |
19 |
Winner Take All |
36.62 |
63.38 |
|
19 |
| 19-Feb |
Wisconsin |
40 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
15 |
32 |
| 4-Mar |
Texas |
140 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
51 |
78 |
| 4-Mar |
Ohio |
88 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
32 |
58 |
| 4-Mar |
Rhode Island |
20 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
7 |
18 |
| 4-Mar |
Vermont |
17 |
Winner Take All |
36.62 |
63.38 |
|
17 |
| 10-Mar |
Mississippi |
39 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
14 |
32 |
| 22-Apr |
Pennsylvania |
74 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
27 |
52 |
| 6-May |
North Carolina |
69 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
25 |
49 |
| 6-May |
Indiana |
57 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
21 |
43 |
| 13-May |
Nebraska |
33 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
12 |
28 |
| 16-May |
Hawaii |
20 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
7 |
18 |
| 20-May |
Kentucky |
45 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
16 |
36 |
| 20-May |
Oregon |
30 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
11 |
26 |
| 27-May |
Idaho |
32 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
12 |
27 |
| 3-Jun |
New Mexico |
32 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
12 |
27 |
| 3-Jun |
South Dakota |
27 |
|
36.62 |
63.38 |
10 |
23 |
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Total |
1008 |
|
|
|
332 |
777 |
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Delegates Already Won |
|
|
|
701 |
414 |
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Total Delegates after 2/5 |
|
|
|
1033 |
1191 |
Observations:
In the analysis above, I assumed McCain takes Missouri. Romney can lighten his post-February-5 workload with a win in Missouri. Right now that doesn't look too promising.
Under the scenario above, I am almost certain Huckabee drops out on 2/6 and endorses McCain. Huckabee's delegates (from what I understand) follow his endorsement and go to McCain. That scenario would put McCain only 307 delegates from the nomination and make Romney's job post-February-5 that much more difficult since Romney would now need to edge out McCain by slightly higher margins in all remaining post-February-5 states to prevent a McCain victory.
I hope conservatives (especially in Missouri) who are considering voting for Huckabee on 2/5 really think this through. McCain isn't the choice of a true conservative. UPDATE: The Massachusetts polls were originally shown incorrectly with McCain at 57% and Romney at 34%. The reverse is true. This was corrected immediately.
UPDATE II: Delaware & New Jersey are winner-take-all states. Arkansas is not...but Huckabee is favored to win Arkansas. The tables have been modified to reflect these updates.