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I think I figured out why Huck hasn't dropped out...

Posted by Ryan Hawkins on Wednesday, February 27, 2008 11:59:58 AM
In a single, simple answer to the question as to why Huck hasn't dropped out of the race:  Huck's presidential campaign is good for business. 
 
Let's face it - Huck is in the speech-giving business.  Mike Huckabee hides no secrets about making his living through speaking engagements in the church circuit.  It is no secret that he has a regular fee of $25,000 per speaking engagement...and while he may not necessarily stick to that fee for every speech he gives on the church circuit - his presidential campaign continues to help Huckabee tour the country and fill up his calendar with  paid speech after paid speech...(most recently in Colorado Springs.)
 
Honestly, I can't say I blame him.  After all - the presidential campaign trail is hard work...and if a candidate has figured out a lucrative way to be paid during the course of his campaign, who can blame him for "priming the pump."  As long as John McCain does not have 1,191 delegates he needs to secure the nomination, Huckabee can continue to line his pockets as he preaches for filthy lucre...and if I were him, I'd milk every last dime I could - because the calendar (and the speaking engagements) might dry up after McCain wins the nod.
 
Could this be why Mitt Romney foresaw the prudence of endorsing John McCain for the good of the party?  Was Romney actually foreseeing Mike Huckabee's continued mockery of campaign finance laws and use of the "presidential publicity" to further Huckabee's  personal fortune...at the expense of the GOP and its voters?  Hmmmm... 
 
I confess - I have under-estimated Huck's business sense.  He is a better businessman than I thought.   
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Why GOP Candidates don't want endorsements from the Boston Globe...

Posted by Ryan Hawkins on Tuesday, February 19, 2008 3:41:35 PM
On December 16, 2007 the McCain campaign thought they had crippled the Romney campaign when McCain won the endorsement of the Boston Globe.  (After all, this was right from Romney's back yard - if Romney was such a good governor, why wouldn't a prominent Massachusetts Newspaper endorse Mitt?) 
 
Unfortunately, the Boston Globe is a liberal newspaper with a liberal agenda.  As Mitt was arguably the most conservative candidate in the race, it was obvious he wouldn't be winning any endorsements from a liberal paper like the Globe. 
 
That begs the question:  Why endorse McCain? 
 
Answer:  To put myself in their shoes - if I really want Hillary or Barack to win the whitehouse, then why not use my influence to help the GOP nominate a weaker candidate?   That being my strategy, I can then start up the attacks on how much of a weakling McCain really is once he has the GOP nomination wrapped up...maybe even sooner.  Sounds ridiculous to accuse the Boston Globe of such deceitful, manipulative behavior - right?  Wrong!  
 
Now that McCain is the clear front runner and likely nominee, the Globe has flip-flopped, and is now in "Attack McCain" mode.   It has barely been two months since that very paper endorsed McCain, now they are unloading on him.  Unbelievable!!   When the Boston Globe endorsed John McCain, this should have been a red flag to republicans.  The GOP has been duped into nominating McCain.  I hate to say the GOP has lost this election, but we all know McCain doesn't have a chance in November...especially against the young, charismatic, energetic, enthusiastic, well-funded Obama.  Don't get me wrong - McCain still has my vote, but McCain's odds of winning in November are about the same as Ron Paul's odds of winning the GOP nomination (in my humble opinion.)          
 
 
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Conservative Christians Mull 3rd Party Candidate Idea - Again

Posted by Ryan Hawkins on Friday, February 15, 2008 11:09:03 AM
(Speaking to those conservative christians who failed to back Mitt Romney.) 
 
All I can say to conservative christians (after I read how they now are considering a 3rd party candidate on this latest article on msnbc ) is: 
 
We told you so.
 
Now after you evangelicals face the consequences of disregarding the advice of countless conservatives (Paul Weyrich, Mark DeMoss, Bob Jones III, Robert R. Taylor, Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham, Mark Levin, Sean Hannity, and Hugh Hewitt...not to mention the vast GOP endorsements for Romney - the magnitude of which which exceeded even McCain himself) that exhorted you to line up behind Mitt Romney for the good of conservatism, you evangelicals now have the audacity to consider third party options in the general election?????      Unbelievable!!!!!!! 
 
It is because of people like you that I am becoming a stronger and stronger advocate of a requirement for voters to pass some sort of intelligence test before their vote can be counted.  I am convinced that America could elect much better leaders (both in primaries and general elections) if we can slice off  the "stupidity vote" from the ballot box and eliminate the effect it has on elections.  I suspect that could have eliminated 50% of Huck's votes...and the remaining 50% would have realized more strongly that Huck is unelectable and voted the pre-Feb.5 McCain-Romney race based on the issues important to them:  1) Pro-life; and 2) Federal Marriage Amendment.  McCain was 1/2; Romney 2/2.       
 
I beat this issue to death in January that we were in a two-man race, and that conservative evangelicals needed to choose between McCain & Romney.  A vote for Huck was a vote for McCain.  To most of us, that was obvious before February 5, but I guess it wasn't obvious for the majority of evangelicals until February 6.  I hope you learned your lesson.  Huckabee made his appeal to a select group of voters while alienating everyone else...which limited his candidacy and made him unelectable both in the primaries and the general.  He failed to appeal to fiscal conservatives...he failed to appeal to economic conservatives...he failed to appeal to military and national security conservatives.  He was (and still is) unelectable both in the primary and in the general. 
 
I am now a reluctant, pessimistic McCain supporter...only because he is a slightly better alternative to Hillary or Obama. 
 
I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but you evangelicals gave up your fight for the Federal Marriage Amendment when you chose Huckabee over Romney...I'm just as upset over that as you Evangelicals are, but I strongly suggest you line up behind McCain in November if you want to win any abortion battles over the next 4-8 years.  Your stupidity in supporting Huck over Romney has already cost us the battle over the federal marriage amendment, but let's learn from our mistakes!!!!   A third-party conservative candidate will hand the general election to the Democrats...causing us to lose yet another battle - on abortion!!!!   Think!!!  Cut the stupidity vote...let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater!!!!   (Pun intended.)      
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Facts are stubborn things for a Huck Supporter

Posted by Ryan Hawkins on Tuesday, February 12, 2008 2:22:09 PM
Jeff Fuller (of www.mymanmitt.com) was in a discussion with a Huckabee supporter who was dissing Mitt as "Finished." 

The reponse was just beautiful: 

It looks like Mitt (after 1 month of primaries and caucuses) is going to have more total votes and total delegates than your man (Huck) will have after 2 months of primaries and caucuses. 


(CNN delegate count as of 2/13/2008)
Delegates
McCain 830
Romney 286
Huckabee 217



Vote Tally as of 2/13/2008

Total Votes Percent
McCain 5,468,444            38.77%
Romney 4,293,965         30.44%
Huckabee 2,800,425              19.85%



And your man is more "finished" now than than our man was when he bowed out for the good of the party.

The Huck supporter then said that Romney spent over a million dollars per delegate and was the worst political investment ever . . . the Fuller reply: I think Rudy's $50 million for 1 delegate is probably the "worst political investment ever".

And, like Huck, I'm no math major, but I do have at least two functioning brain cells.
Romney got 286 delegates . . . your "$1 plus mil per delegate" claim suggests that he must have spent $300 million or more on this campaign.  Either you're easily duped (typical Huck supporter BTW) or your completely dishonest (typical Huck mimicker).

When a guy drops out of a masters program to be the understudy of a Tele-Evangelist - that tells us all anyone (especially any religious person) needs to know about Huck's character and aspirations.

UPDATE:  Stats were updated 2/13/08 with data current as of 2/13/08.  The Math for Huck is getting worse daily.  It still appears that by 3/4/08, Huck might still not even catch up to Romney's 2/5 numbers, where Romney dropped out for the good of the party.    

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Mormons for Obama???

Posted by Ryan Hawkins on Monday, February 11, 2008 1:50:24 PM
As a conservative republican, articles such as this scare the crud out of me. 

Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, and Colorado have large amounts of Mormons...and if Obama is able to capitalize off of Mormons who want to flip the bird at the Evangelical GOP base, then all five of these states are put in play for November. 

I'm a Mormon, I'm not excited about McCain's chances in November (and Huckabee's chances are even less than McCain's) but I will surely vote for McCain in November over any democrat.  (Although it is close.) 
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Huckabee isn't to blame for the pickle conservatives are in...

Posted by Ryan Hawkins on Wednesday, February 06, 2008 11:19:45 PM
I simply blame those who fell for the illusion and voted for him.  It was obvious that Huck didn't have a prayer of winning the nomination...even before last night. Now its even more obvious.

For anyone who thinks otherwise - do the math. Calculate how many more delegates (of the remaining 1,008 left) Huck needs to win in order to reach 1,191. (According to CNN, he currently has 176.)  I'm sure he can tell a pretty good story about 5 loaves and 2 fishes, but if Huck can miraculously make 176 + 1,008 = 1,191, then he'll not only have my vote - he'll have my attention and my wallet. 

I'm not blaming the all Huckafans for the pickle we conservatives are in - I'm just blaming those Huckafans who would have picked Romney over McCain. (You know...the more conservative Huckafans...ones who want a federal marriage amendment, ones who want lower taxes and smaller government, ones who oppose stem cell research, ones who want something to be done about high gas prices, secure borders, and illegal immigration.)

McCain is to the left on a lot of issues...(global warming, taxes, ANWR, federal marriage amendment, immigration...to name a few) which is why he will have trouble getting the conservatives to vote for him in November.

I don't believe for a second that true conservatives want the McCain kind of record in a GOP presidential nominee...if that record bothers you, and if you voted for Huckabee on Super Tuesday...it is your fault that the conservatives lost to McCain. You threw your vote away on someone like Huckabee (who didn't have a prayer of winning before Feb 5...and who still doesn't have a prayer of winning - even after a glorious Feb 5 performance that blew away the expectations of all.)

Huckabee supporters didn't turn this into a three-man race - they turned it into a one-man race. Huck isn't the one to be blamed - its the voters who bought into the illusion that Huck could actually win.
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The Super Tuesday Surprise

Posted by Ryan Hawkins on Wednesday, February 06, 2008 3:48:12 PM
On Super Tuesday the Huckabee Supporters came out in droves and voted for McCain via Mike Huckabee.   That surprised many of us.  How about West Virginia?  Caucus participants in WV noticed after the first round that Romney was at 41% and climbing...so the McCain supporters during the second round decided to throw their support behind Huckabee (as evident in the ending numbers:  Huck - 52%, Mitt - 47%, and McCain - 1%) in a strategic move to help McCain by giving Huckabee a win in West Virginia that would have gone to Romney. 

What can I say to that?  I've got to hand it to the WV McCain caucus-goers for using Huckabee as a pawn in their strategy.  Yes, it was a cheap shot at Romney, and perhaps it gave Huck some momentum in a few later states without making him a serious threat to McCain...but unfortunately this is what happens in politics...You'd better believe November is going to be full of dirty little tricks like that.        

Mike Huckabee (despite his better than expected performance last night) still has no chance of winning...and even though Romney widened his lead over Huckabee last night, Mitt needed a much better Feb 5 performance to contend with McCain.  Right now results still show that McCain is barely over halfway to the 1,191 delegates he needs to secure the nomination...although numbers from Feb 5 aren't final yet.  McCain (as of right now) still needs 511 more delegates.   

CNN shows the total delegate count now as follows: 

McCain:          680
Romney:         270
Huckabee:      176

Expect those numbers to shift some more over the next day or two since unpledged delegates will still get factored in at some point.  
  
Despite the statement from James Dobson on February 5 (which was a little late in my opinion) it appears McCain will ultimately get the nomination and probably lose in November due to his lack of support and enthusiasm from the GOP base.  I say that because there seems to be quite a conservative movement that feels the GOP will be better poised to make a return toward conservatism by electing a Democrat in November than it would by electing McCain.  Obviously that movement includes James Dobson and Ann Coulter.   The level of resistance toward a McCain nomination/presidency seems to be unprecented. 

Although I can relate to this conservative movement, my opinion is that much more conservative ground will be lost to the left if Hillary or Barack get elected...I could be wrong.     

My March 4 vote (in Texas) is still going to be for Romney (and I am still as ticked off as ever at McCain for the many times he has thumbed his nose at conservatives) but at least I can take some comfort in McCain's flip-flop, pandering pledge to make the Bush tax cuts permanent.  I don't believe him, but at least his empty promise is a better alternative than what Barack & Hillary want.  I'm not optimistic about McCain's chances in November (especially since McCain's measley fund-raising is dwarfed by the well-funded democrats...and even more especially if McCain runs against a young, very charismatic Barack Obama) but I will still pull the lever for McCain if I have to.

I'm still very surprised the Huck supporters came out in such droves last night and cast their votes for McCain via Mike Huckabee.  I thought is was pretty obvious that Huck couldn't possibly win.  What wasn't obvious last night is much more obvious now because even after Huck's glorious Feb 5 performance that blew away the expectations of all - Huck is still as unlikely to win the nod as he ever was...he still needs over 100% of the remaining delegates to win the nod.  Now it increasingly looks like Romney is almost as much of a long-shot as Huck. Nonetheless, all three have vowed to stay in the race.

McCain currently looks like he is 511 delegates away from securing the nod - which would imply he needs to take over 50% of the remaining 1,008 delegates to secure the nod. If the remaining 1,008 delegates continue to split 3 ways over the next several weeks, McCain may still not reach 1,191 delegates. 

There's no point for anyone to drop out, because a brokered convention (at this point) might be good for the party.  The GOP can force McCain (through the political horse trading) to take some more conservative positions in his candidacy to bring him more in favor with the base.        
           
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The Dilemma of Huckabee Supporters

Posted by Ryan Hawkins on Tuesday, February 05, 2008 1:10:59 AM

McCain: 
1. Opposes federal marriage amendment; Romney/Huck favor it.
2. McCain-Kennedy
3. McCain-Feingold
4. McCain-Kennedy-Edwards
5. McCain-Lieberman (including a new $0.50/gallon gas tax to fight global warming????)
6. Opposes Guantanamo Bay...let's bring terrorists here and give them constitutional rights
7. Philosophy of bigger government & higher taxes

This is far from conservative. That's why conservatives don't like McCain.



Let's face it...Huck isn't seriously competing in even 1/4 of the states right now..and even those are all close races - AL, GA, MO, OK, & TN.  In just the winner-take-all states alone, McCain will likely have over 300 more delegates on 2/5.  McCain & Romney will split CA's 173 delegates.  McCain doesn't have a single state where he polls under 20%, so he will likely have a very strong day on 2/5 and end the day anywhere between 500 & 800 total delegates. 

Huckabee's absolute best-case scenario will be to bring his 29-delegate total to somewhere around 250 (realistically he probably hits 183.)  This means Huck's only shot at the nomination will be to win 100% of the votes in all post-February-5 states.  Probability = 0.  There is no way Huckabee can win. 


Romney polls well in most of the 2/5 states, and will likely win MT, CO, MA, ND, CA, UT, and possibly more.  Two of those are winner-take-all states.  Romney's worst-case 2/5 scenario puts him at about 320 total delegates, but for him to hit 400-500 total delegates on 2/5 is certainly not unreasonable by any means.  If neither Huckabee nor Romney break 400 total delegates on 2/5, it is highly unlikely either of them can win (because each must then win over 791 [nearly 80%] of the remaining 1008 delegates to secure the nomination.) 

Huckabee Supporters: Choose carefully.  If you like McCain, there is no harm in voting for Huck...but since most of you are true conservatives, you probably despise McCain almost as much as you despise Clinton or Obama.  If the latter applies, you need to think this through carefully, seriously examine Mitt Romney's stand on the issues ,  and see for yourself how conservative Mitt really is.  It will be easy to pull the lever for Mitt once you do that.     

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Romney's Chances

Posted by Ryan Hawkins on Monday, February 04, 2008 1:23:10 PM
      Most Recent 2008 Polls Delegate Split
2/5 State Delegates Winner Take All McCain Romney Huckabee McCain Romney Huckabee
Alabama 48   40 21 31 21 11 16
Alaska 29   45 35 20 13 10 6
Arizona 53 Winner Take All 43 34 9 53    
Arkansas 34   20 35 45 7 12 15
California 173   32 40 12 66 82 25
Colorado 46   45 35 20 21 16 9
Connecticut 30 Winner Take All 53 31 6 30    
Delaware 18 Winner Take All 45 35 20 18    
Georgia 72   31 29 26 26 24 22
Illinois 70   43 20 15 39 18 13
Massachusetts 43   34 57 3 16 26 1
Minnesota 41   45 35 20 18 14 8
Missouri 58 Winner Take All 35 24 27 58    
Montana 25 Winner Take All 45 35 20   25  
New Jersey 52 Winner Take All 45 35 20 52    
New York 101 Winner Take All 53 19 8 101    
North Dakota 26   45 35 20 12 9 5
Oklahoma 41   45 35 20 18 14 8
Tennessee 55   32 22 30 21 14 20
Utah 36 Winner Take All 45 35 20   36  
West Virginia 30   45 35 20 14 11 6
Total 1081         604 322 154
Delegates Already Won       97 92 29
Total Delegates after 2/5         701 414 183

*In states where recent poll data was not available, I assumed McCain gets 45%, Romney 35%, and Huckabee 20%...that should be a little conservative from Romney's perspective.   
**Under this scenario, 2/5 effectively eliminates Huckabee from the race whether he drops out or not since he will now require all remaining 1,008 delegates in order to reach the magic number of 1,191 needed to secure the nomination.  Huckabee is clearly not in this for the win...I wish his supporters could see it this way. 

***Noteworthy is that 369 of McCain's delegates (129% of his lead over Romney) are from winner-take-all states...which just doesn't seem right. 


The table below shows what Romney must do for victory if the likely scenario above plays out on 2/5.  Essentially - Romney must win the three remaining winner-take-all states AND he must beat McCain by an average margin of 63.38% to 36.62% in the other states.  That is how Romney can reach the magic number of 1,191 delegates.  This isn't pretty, but (given the opposition to McCain in the GOP) this isn't out of reach for Romney.   Huckabee's chances are...well, let's just say much, much smaller than Romney's chances.    Huckabee is certainly not in the race to win...which will be even more obvious if he does not drop out on February 6. 


Romney's post-2/5 path to Victory - This isn't pretty, but it isn't out-of reach
        Polls Delegate Split
  Post 2/5 States     McCain Romney McCain Romney
9-Feb Louisiana 47 36.62 63.38 17 37
9-Feb Washington 40 36.62 63.38 15 32
9-Feb